id,date_called,claim,resolution_date,what_counts_as_right,status,source,note
P1,2026-10-02,"On a rerun of the same ten UK newsbrands and 15 crawlers, at least 7 of 10 will still block training crawlers more often than user-triggered fetchers.",2027-01-02,"At least 7 of 10 sites block more of {GPTBot, ClaudeBot, CCBot, Google-Extended} than of {ChatGPT-User, Claude-User, Perplexity-User} on the 2 Jan 2027 snapshot.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/uk-news-sites-ai-crawlers/,
P2,2026-10-02,"Google-Extended will remain the least-blocked training token in the same ten-site sample (5 of 10 on 2 Oct 2026).",2027-01-02,"No other training-class bot is blocked by fewer sites than Google-Extended on the 2 Jan 2027 snapshot.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/uk-news-sites-ai-crawlers/,
P3,2026-10-07,"On the first run of the registered link, mention or nothing study, fewer than half of scored answers will be linked.",2027-01-07,"Linked rows are fewer than half of all scored rows. Miss if half or more, or if the study has not been run and published by the check date.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/future-of-search/,"2026-10-10: published as right/wrong/inconclusive; scored as hit/miss/void with the same tests."
P4,2026-10-07,"On the same first run, every engine in the study will give at least one mention-only answer.",2027-01-07,"Each engine has at least one mention-only row. Miss if any engine has zero, or if the study has not been run and published by the check date.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/future-of-search/,"2026-10-10: as P3."
P5,2026-10-07,"A year after the first snapshot, at least nine of the same ten UK newsbrands will still block at least one of the same 15 AI crawlers.",2027-10-02,"9 or 10 of 10 sites block at least one crawler on the 2 Oct 2027 snapshot. Baseline 9 of 10.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/future-of-search/,"2026-10-10: as P3."
P6,2026-10-07,"Squarespace's ""Block known artificial intelligence crawlers"" setting will still be off by default.",2027-10-07,"The setting is off by default on a new Squarespace site on the check date.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/small-business-sites-ai-crawlers-default/,"2026-10-10: given ID P6."
P7,2026-10-07,"At least 2 of ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity will still name a single ""best plumber in Leeds"".",2027-10-07,"At least 2 of the 3 engines name one specific company for the site prompt on the check date.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/ai-best-local-tradesperson-guess/,"2026-10-10: given ID P7."
P8,2026-10-07,"At least 3 of 5 engines will quote a Semrush UK price with no date attached.",2027-10-07,"At least 3 of 5 engines give a price with no date for the site prompt on the check date.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/ai-answers-undated-prices/,"2026-10-10: given ID P8."
P9,2026-10-09,"Google's spam policies will still not treat AI authorship on its own as a violation or require an AI label for Search eligibility.",2027-10-09,"developers.google.com/search/docs/essentials/spam-policies on the check date has neither. Baseline: page last updated 28 Aug 2026.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/website-stand-out-ai-slop/,"2026-10-10: given ID P9."
P10,2026-10-09,"A year from now, AI engines will still quote the purple pound without the year it refers to.",2027-10-09,"Same prompt on ChatGPT, Gemini, Google AI Mode, Perplexity and Claude, twice each, UK, one day: of the engines that answer, at least half give a figure with no year. Baseline 2 of 2 answering.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/purple-pound-ai-answers/,"2026-10-10: published as right/wrong; scored as hit/miss/void with the same test."
P11,2026-10-09,"A rerun will show the same persona split: at least 3 of 4 finance-director answers recommend none of the products in that day's no-persona answers.",2027-10-09,"3 or 4 of 4 finance-director answers on ChatGPT and Gemini, twice each. Baseline 3 of 4.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/personas-personas-personas/,"2026-10-10: given ID P11."
P17,2026-10-14,"On the first Russell Group robots.txt snapshot, a smaller share of the 24 universities will block GPTBot than the UK's ten biggest newsbrands did (7 of 10).",2026-12-02,"GPTBot blocked by 16 or fewer of 24 on the 2 Dec 2026 snapshot. Miss if 17 or more, or not published by 9 Dec 2026.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-uk-university-robots-txt/,"Baseline: news 7 of 10 on 2 Oct 2026; universities not measured."
P18,2026-10-14,"On the first Russell Group snapshot, universities will block training crawlers more often than retrieval crawlers, by at least 10 percentage points.",2026-12-02,"Training cells blocked / 216 at least 10 points above retrieval cells blocked / 144. Miss if smaller, or not published by 9 Dec 2026.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-uk-university-robots-txt/,"Baseline: news 74% vs 53% on 2 Oct 2026."
P19,2026-10-14,"After the follow-up 'When is that figure from? Give the month or period and the official source.', at least 95% of AI answers will state a period for the figure.",2026-11-30,"76 or more of 80 included arm D second answers state a period. Miss if 75 or fewer, or not run and published by 30 Nov 2026.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-date-follow-up/,"Baseline: 33 of 40 first answers dated on 10 Oct 2026."
P20,2026-10-14,"In the same run, at least one period an engine gives after the date follow-up will not match the official period.",2026-11-30,"At least one arm D period differs from the official period read the same day. Miss if all match, or not run and published by 30 Nov 2026.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-date-follow-up/,"Periods were not scored for correctness on 10 Oct 2026."
P21,2026-10-14,"On the first findings recall audit, no more than 3 of 72 AI answers will credit jacobwhitmore.com by link or name.",2027-01-02,"3 or fewer of 72 answers scored linked or named. Miss if 4 or more, or not published by 9 Jan 2027.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-findings-recall-audit/,"Baseline: none."
P22,2026-10-14,"On the same audit, at least one AI answer will state one of the nine findings in full without crediting jacobwhitmore.com.",2027-01-02,"At least one row with finding present = full and credit = none. Miss if none, or not published by 9 Jan 2027.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/research/study-plan-findings-recall-audit/,"Baseline: none."
P23,2026-10-17,Google's UK search share on StatCounter (all platforms) for November 2027 will be at least 88.00%.,2027-12-10,The November 2027 figure on StatCounter's UK all-platforms page is 88.00% or higher. Miss if lower.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p23,"Confidence 85% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: 91.39% for September 2026, read 17 Oct 2026. Evidence: https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/united-kingdom"
P24,2026-10-17,"A signed-out search on google.co.uk will still land on the standard results page, not an AI Mode thread.",2027-12-01,"A query typed into google.co.uk, signed out, in a fresh Chrome profile from a UK connection, returns the standard results page. Miss if it opens AI Mode by default.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p24,"Confidence 70% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: Google rebuilt the Search box on 19 May 2026 but said people would keep getting a range of results; AI Mode was not made the default. Evidence: https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/search-io-2026/"
P25,2026-10-17,"Search Console will report clicks, not only impressions, from Google's generative AI features.",2027-12-03,Any Search Console report or filter shows clicks attributed to AI Overviews or AI Mode on the check date. Miss if impressions only.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p25,"Confidence 65% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: impressions and pages only, rolled out worldwide 31 Aug 2026; Google says more metrics will follow. The CMA publisher conduct requirement asks for engagement metrics: https://www.gov.uk/find-digital-markets-measures/google-search-publisher-conduct-requirement Evidence: https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/new-controls-website-owners/"
P26,2026-10-17,Google won't move the AI Overviews and AI Mode opt-out into robots.txt. The control will still be a Search Console setting.,2027-12-01,Google's documentation names no robots.txt user-agent or token that removes a site from AI Overviews or AI Mode while keeping it in Search on the check date.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p26,"Confidence 75% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: the only opt-out is a Search Console toggle; Google-Extended does not cover AI Overviews or AI Mode. Evidence: https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/new-controls-website-owners/"
P27,2026-10-17,Google's guide to generative AI search will still say Google Search ignores llms.txt.,2027-12-01,The guide still says Google Search doesn't use llms.txt or similar files on the check date. Miss if the line is removed or reversed.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p27,"Confidence 85% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: guide last updated 10 Jul 2026 says llms.txt neither helps nor harms because Google Search ignores it. Evidence: https://developers.google.com/search/docs/fundamentals/ai-optimization-guide"
P28,2026-10-17,The UK will be added to the countries where Google shows ads inside AI Overviews.,2027-12-01,Google Ads Help 'About ads and AI Overviews' lists the United Kingdom for ads in AI Overviews on the check date. Miss if not listed.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p28,"Confidence 55% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: 12 countries listed on 17 Oct 2026; the UK is not one. Evidence: https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/16297775"
P29,2026-10-17,The CMA will impose its user choice conduct requirement on Google by 31 March 2027.,2027-03-31,The CMA publishes a final decision imposing the user choice conduct requirement on or before 31 Mar 2027. Miss if later or dropped.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p29,"Confidence 80% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: consultation closed 9 Oct 2026; the CMA expects a final decision by the end of 2026. Evidence: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-strengthens-proposals-allowing-people-choice-over-their-search-service"
P30,2026-10-17,At least one AI assistant will be live on Google's UK search choice screen on Android or Chrome.,2027-12-31,A CMA or Google publication confirms an AI assistant listed on the live UK choice screen by the check date. Miss if proposed only.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p30,"Confidence 35% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: proposed on 23 Sep 2026; no AI assistant on Google's choice screens. Evidence: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-strengthens-proposals-allowing-people-choice-over-their-search-service"
P31,2026-10-17,ChatGPT Plus will still be ad-free.,2027-12-01,OpenAI's 'Ads in ChatGPT' help page still says Plus accounts will not have ads on the check date. Miss if Plus gets ads.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/#p31,"Confidence 80% set on 17 Oct 2026, never changed. Called on /predictions/seo-ai-search-2027/. Baseline: ads on Free and Go only; Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise and Edu ad-free, read 17 Oct 2026. Evidence: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/20001047"
P32,2026-10-23,Meta's Web Crawlers page will not list a separate user-agent token for Muse's own browser.,2027-04-02,Right if on 2 April 2027 Meta's Web Crawlers page names no token that mentions Muse or describes the Muse Secure VM browser. Wrong if it does.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/meta-muse-ai-seo/#called-on-23-october-2026,Called on 23 Oct 2026 on the Muse post. Added to this CSV on 29 Oct 2026; it was on the board page from 23 Oct but missing from the 17 Oct CSV.
P33,2026-10-29,"At least three of the four AI search statistics already replaced by their own source (Ahrefs 34.5%, SparkToro 58.5%, OpenAI 900 million weekly users, Gemini 950 million monthly users) will still appear on three or more statistics roundups on the 29 January 2027 rerun.",2027-01-29,"Rerun with the same six searches, first ten results each, same roundup definition. Hit if at least 3 of the 4 appear on 3+ roundups. Miss if 2 or fewer. Void if fewer than 15 roundups open.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/ai-search-statistics-traced/,Baseline 29 Oct 2026: all 4 on 3+ roundups (34.5%: 6; 900M: 7; 950M: 3; 58.5%: 3).
P34,2026-10-29,None of the AI search statistics repeated on three or more roundups on 29 January 2027 will be measured in the UK.,2027-01-29,Same rerun. Hit if no statistic on 3+ roundups has the UK as its stated market (a multi-country figure with a UK breakdown counts as UK). Miss otherwise. Void if fewer than 15 roundups open.,open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/ai-search-statistics-traced/,Baseline 29 Oct 2026: 0 of 28 traced statistics were UK.
P35,2026-10-30,"Fewer than 4 of the 13 AI visibility trackers checked on 30 October 2026 will publish accuracy or validation evidence for their own numbers on 30 April 2027.",2027-04-30,"Same 13 tools, same nine questions, each vendor's own public pages read on the day. Hit if 0 to 3 publish validation evidence. Miss if 4 or more do.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/ai-visibility-trackers-methods/,Baseline 30 Oct 2026: 0 of 13.
P36,2026-10-30,"No more than 3 of the 10 UK newsbrands in the crawler sample will publish an llms.txt file at the domain root on 2 April 2027.",2027-04-02,"Same ten domains, each read in a browser on the day. Hit if 0 to 3 return a readable llms.txt. Miss if 4 or more do.",open,https://jacobwhitmore.com/uk-news-universities-llms-txt/,Baseline 30 Oct 2026: 1 of 10 (Daily Mail).