Written 16 October 2026.
In May 2025 I published six predictions about non-league football for 2030. One season on, two are moving the right way, one is partly there, and three have no evidence yet. The rule that matters most has not moved: the National League still sends only two clubs up. I also got one fact wrong.
The scorecard
| Call (May 2025) | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bigger average crowds, even in the seventh and eighth tiers | On track | Bury averaged 3,698 at home in the eighth tier in 2025–26 (source). National League South set a record league average of 1,319 (source). |
| More fan-owned clubs gaining traction | On track, one example | Bury, owned by its supporters’ society since the 2023 merger, won the Northern Premier League West in 2025–26, its second promotion in two seasons (source, source). |
| The National League called “League 5” in all but name | Partly | York and Rochdale said in a joint statement that the National League is no longer a non-league competition (source). The promotion rules still treat it as one: two places up. |
| More international investors seeking undervalued clubs | No evidence yet | The biggest deal I found was Apollo Sports Capital’s minority stake in Wrexham, reported to value the club at about $350m (source). Wrexham are a Championship club, not an undervalued non-league one. |
| Continued media expansion beyond DAZN | No evidence yet | DAZN still sells the National League as exclusive to its platform (source). |
| Smarter betting partnerships tied to live content and mobile streaming | Not scored | Not checked in this post. |
What I got wrong
Error I listed Notts County as a non-league club regularly drawing 5,000 to 10,000. They had already left non-league, promoted to League Two on 13 May 2023 (source). The original article stays as published.
The bottleneck is two promotion places
Demand has outrun the structure. The National League drew 1,482,316 in total in 2025–26, with a top crowd of 10,860 for Carlisle United v Eastleigh (source). Southend averaged 8,103 at Roots Hall, the highest in the non-league pyramid (source).
Rochdale finished second on 106 points and still had to go through the play-offs (source). Notts County finished second on 107 points in 2023 and had to do the same (source).
The 3UP campaign for a third promotion place launched in February 2025. MPs from several parties backed it at Westminster in February 2026, and the EFL said it would discuss it at its all-club meetings in March 2026 with no vote scheduled (source). By July 2026, a further EFL general meeting was set to discuss it, again with no formal vote planned (source).
There are no new predictions in this post. These six calls are not on the predictions board; they are checked here and again in 2030.
Method
Every source below was opened on 16 October 2026. Attendance figures come from the season pages and attendance lists linked. Where sources disagreed, such as Torquay United’s National League South average, the figure was left out. “On track” means the evidence so far points the way the call said; nothing is marked hit or miss before 2030.
Sources
- Original article, 12 May 2025 (LinkedIn)
- 2025–26 National League (Wikipedia)
- 2025–26 Bury F.C. season (Wikipedia)
- Gigg Lane (Wikipedia)
- National League South (Wikipedia)
- Top 200 non-league average attendances 2025/26 (Fan Banter)
- York and Rochdale on 3UP (DAZN)
- MPs back 3UP (Torbay Weekly)
- EFL play-off vote and 3UP (Leadership)
- Wrexham finances 2024/25 (Swiss Ramble)
- 2023 National League play-off final (Wikipedia)